MPS

The roadmap out of lockdown has been released, so the RBNZ seems almost certain to hike 25bps to 50bps on 6 Oct. Looking further forward, the case for tight monetary policy can be made. The level of GDP and CPI were above the Feb’20 MPS forecasts in Q2’21, and the easing from the FLP and prior QE, means an OCR above 2% may be needed.