My name is Matthew Johnson: I am the Principal of Signal Macro & I live near a lighthouse.

The lighthouse isn’t the only reason I chose the name Signal Macro. Statistical methods that separate the signal from the noise are a core part of my process.

In my career* I found that many mistakes came from sticking with a view for too long. Often due to some sort of confirmation bias. These statistical tools helped solve that problem. They act as an objective check on judgements and unstick things a little.

Of course, all models are wrong. Models plus expert judgment is best.

I provide both here: but they are clearly identified so you can tell which is which. That way my signals can be an input into your process, even if you don’t agree with my judgements.

*Career: I spent most of my career at UBS, the last five years of which I was a Managing Director. My most recent role was the Global Head of Rates Strategy. Prior to this I worked as the Head of AUD/NZD Rates Strategy in Sydney; and headed up the Asia Pacific Knowledge Network in Singapore. Outside of UBS, I have worked for MLP (the hedge fund), ICAP (the inter-dealer broker), 4CAST (now Continuum Economics), and the Australian Productivity Commission (Microeconomic Policy).