RBA Preview: Nov 2021

The RBA will dump YCC, keep rates on hold, and very likely hold QE at 4bn per week at their Nov’21 meeting. If there’s a surprise it will be an early taper. Both growth and inflation forecast will come up a bit, but not enough to signal a 2022 hike. Inflation in a 2.25% to 2.5% range in 2023 is consistent with hikes starting in 2023. I expect rates to rally a bit as there’s so much in the price.