I did the September RBA meeting live with Annette Beacher on Ausbiz.
I got a bit lucky on a tight call this time: I had expected 4bn+4bn, and that’s what the RBA delivered.
It’s a bit unusual that the RBA isn’t easing given the economic contraction, but I think bond market capacity is the constraint. With QE set at 4bn per week until at least February 2022, we’ve now passed peak easing for the RBA. The next decision will be made against the backdrop of fast growth as the economy re-opens. The probability of a taper to 3bn per week at that meeting seems high.
The RBA would no doubt like to get to a situation where they are buying less ACGBs than the AOFM issues each week. The AOFM issues about 2bn per week, so the RBA is still about 1.2bn ahead of gross supply.